Inflation Rate South Africa: September 2026 CPI Is 4.5%
South Africa’s Inflation Rate in September 2026
| Measure | September 2026 | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (CPI, year on year) | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Change in prices from the month before | 0.4% | 0% |
| Core inflation (no food, fuel or energy) | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| Fuel (year on year) | 27.9% | 20% |
Headline inflation means the yearly rise in the price of the basket of goods and services that Stats SA tracks. A rate of 4.5% means that, on average, what cost R100 in September 2025 cost about R104.50 in September 2026.
Many economists had expected a higher figure. The market forecast was about 4.7%, so the September 2026 result was a little better than feared.
What Pushed Prices Up
SAnews, the government news agency, reported Stats SA’s three biggest contributors to the 4.5% rate:
| Category | Yearly increase | Share of the 4.5% |
|---|---|---|
| Transport | 10.8% | 1.5 percentage points |
| Housing and utilities | 5.2% | 1.3 percentage points |
| Insurance and financial services | 5.4% | 0.6 of a percentage point |
Together, these three explain more than three of the 4.5 percentage points.
Fuel is the main problem
Transport inflation is high because fuel is much more expensive than a year ago. Fuel prices in the CPI were 27.9% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. Between January and September 2026, petrol went up by R6.13 a litre and 500ppm diesel by R10.66 a litre.
Higher fuel costs reach almost everything. Taxi fares, bus tickets and delivery costs follow fuel. About 80% of South Africa’s food moves by road, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo pointed out after the release.
Food is still cheap compared with other prices
Food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by only 1.2% over the year to September 2026. Food on its own rose 1.0%, up from 0.7% before. Fish and seafood, dairy and eggs, and oils and fats went up, while cereal products and fruit were still cheaper than a year earlier.
Other prices in September 2026
- Rent rose 3.9% over the year, slower than the 4.1% before.
- Health costs rose 3.2%.
- Housing and utilities, which include electricity and water, rose 5.2%.
Inflation in 2026 So Far
| Month | Inflation rate |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 5.0% |
| July 2026 | 4.3% |
| August 2026 | 4.4% |
| September 2026 | 4.5% |
Inflation reached 5.0% in June 2026, its highest level in about two years, then dropped to 4.3% in July. It has risen again since August.
What It Means for Interest Rates
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) aims to keep inflation at 3%, with room of one percentage point either side. At 4.5%, inflation is above that range.
On 23 September 2026 the Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.25%, so the prime lending rate went to 10.75%. In its September statement, the SARB said inflation would likely go above 5% later in 2026 and early in 2027, and should get back to about 3% towards the end of 2027.
The next interest rate decision is on Thursday, 19 November 2026. Our repo rate and prime lending rate page shows the current rates and what a change does to a home loan.
What It Means for Your Money
- Your pay: if your salary went up by less than 4.5% over the past year, your money buys less than before.
- Savings: a savings account that pays less than the inflation rate loses value over time.
- Fuel and transport: these are the costs rising fastest. Check the petrol price for November 2026 before the monthly change.
- Food: food prices are rising slowly for now, which helps households with tight budgets.
- Grants: grant amounts are set once a year in the national Budget, so they do not change with the monthly CPI figure.
What Comes Next
Economists expect inflation to rise again before it falls. PSG chief economist Johann Els said after the release that he expects inflation to go slightly above 5% in October and November 2026, and to fall from around April 2027 if oil prices cool.
Stats SA publishes CPI once a month, a few weeks after the month ends. In 2026 it released the August figure on 23 September and the September figure on 21 October. The October 2026 figure is due in November 2026; check the release calendar on statssa.gov.za for the exact day.
For fuel, electricity and other living costs in one place, see our prices in South Africa page.
Inflation Rate South Africa Questions
What is the inflation rate in South Africa now?
4.5% for September 2026, the latest figure Stats SA released on 21 October 2026.
Did inflation go up or down in September 2026?
It went up slightly, from 4.4% in August to 4.5% in September 2026.
What is core inflation in South Africa?
Core inflation leaves out food, non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and energy. It was 4.0% in September 2026, down from 4.1% in August.
Why is inflation rising in South Africa?
Mainly because of fuel. Transport prices were 10.8% higher than a year before, and fuel alone was up 27.9%.
What is the Reserve Bank’s inflation target?
3%, with a band of one percentage point either side, so between 2% and 4%.
Will interest rates go up in November 2026?
Nobody knows yet. The Reserve Bank decides on 19 November 2026. SABC News reported that the lower than expected September 2026 figure eased fears of another increase.
More: Repo rate and prime rate, petrol price November 2026, electricity price increase 2026/27 and prices in South Africa.